This is a paid article which your subscription is allowing you to read.

In a client note, advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients said the Iran war was drawing to a close and that this would likely “lock in” the very strong performance of global stock markets as energy prices came off into the second half of 2026.

In the note, the firm said it was “confident in reiterating [the] advice that a deal to that effect is in the final stages of being negotiated between the two parties”.

The firm had previously outlined six possible exits from the Iran war. These included i) a direct United States (US) operational solution to reopen Hormuz under naval escort, ii) a strategic US withdrawal under economic and operational pressure, iii) leadership change in Iran, iv) controlled Iranian de-escalation, v) structural efforts by Gulf producers to bypass Hormuz, or vi) a wider regional war involving special forces, regional militias, and possibly US Marines.

Its original advice, reiterated in the latest note, was that the war would most likely conclude via the intersection of scenarios two and four, of a US withdrawal and Iranian de-escalation.

Towards the end of the first month of the conflict, the firm had advised that the heaviest fighting, oil price spike, and market reversal at that point would “probably be the worst of it” and that the global economy and markets would withstand the war to a far more resilient extent than many analysts were predicting. It now argues that market, currency, oil price, and global growth data since then have supported that assessment.

It subsequently advised of a 60-day countdown into the 4th of July weekend in America as the likeliest exit point for the war, arguing that key US objectives on nuclear weapons and driving the global oil market balance of power out of the Middle East and to the US would have been largely achieved, while the Trump administration would be under immense pressure due to consumer sentiment ahead of the November midterm elections.

The firm has now said it expected the countdown into the 4 July weekend to see a deal that would end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that this deal was in the final stages of negotiation.

The effect would be to “lock in” recent market gains, place slight downward pressure on the dollar, strengthen the rand, and leave the global growth outlook only marginally weaker than before the war.

The S&P 500 is up by just under 10% since the first day of the war and by just under 20% since the end of the first month of the war.

An index tracking the value of the US dollar, a measure of global risk sentiment, is just over 1% stronger than on the first day of the war.

The rand, a volatile barometer of emerging-market risk sentiment, is just 4% weaker than it was on the first day of the war and still around 10% stronger than it was a year ago.

A recent United Nations forecast showed world economic output growing by 2.5% in 2026, down from a January forecast of 2.7%. The US is still forecast to grow by 2.0%, while the European Union is expected to grow by 1.1%, down from 1.3%.

The United Kingdom was described as the only major developed world “outlier”, with growth forecast at just 0.7% in 2026, down from 1.1%.

Developing economies are forecast to grow by 3.9%, down from 4.2%.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense that “our view from the start was that the global risk downsides of the war were vastly oversold”.

The firm said pressure on the Trump administration was a central reason for expecting a deal, citing the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 44.8 this month, largely due to petrol prices. Index levels of below 70 points have historically aligned with significant midterm elections losses for the party in command of Congress.

In support of that view, the firm cited a recent poll from The New York Times showing Democrats leading Republicans by 50% to 39% among registered voters when asked which party’s candidate they would support in their district if the midterm election were held. At the same point in 2025, Democrats led Republicans by three points, at 47% to 44%.

The firm said its advice on the 4 July exit point was further supported by concern it has picked up among Israel and some Gulf states that the deal under discussion may be too hasty and poorly thought through.